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3.  How a Solar ROI Calculator Actually Works 

# How a Solar ROI Calculator Actually Works

Most online solar calculators are sales tools. Here's the maths they use — and where they fudge it.

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Jump to a section in this guide 

## The inputs that matter

Roof aspect and pitch, annual irradiance for your postcode, shading factor (the most-fudged input), system size in kWp, expected self-consumption %, current import price, current export rate, and battery capacity if specified.

## Where calculators mislead

Many ignore shading, assume optimistic self-consumption (60%+ without a battery is rare), and project import prices upward indefinitely. Our quotes use conservative real-world assumptions — and we'll show you the spreadsheet.

## The base formula in plain English

Annual generation (kWh) = system size (kWp) × site-specific yield (kWh/kWp/year, derived from PVGIS). Annual savings (£) = (self-consumed kWh × import price) + (exported kWh × export rate). Payback (years) = installed cost (£) ÷ annual savings (£).

Every reputable calculator runs that same formula; what differs is the realism of the inputs. A calculator that quotes you 4-year payback is either using inflated price assumptions or unrealistic self-consumption rates.

## How we model self-consumption honestly

Without a battery: 25-35% for a household out at work weekdays, 35-50% for a household with someone home daytime, 40-55% if you also have an EV charged at home during daylight hours.

With a battery: 70-90% depending on capacity match and tariff. We use 80% as a default conservative number; many homes do better in practice once they tune their settings over the first three months.

## What irradiance number should I use?

PVGIS (European Commission) is the industry-standard data source. For the South East, typical numbers are 1,000-1,100 kWh/kWp/year on south-facing pitched roofs at 30-40°. East/west aspects lose 12-18%. North-facing pitches lose 25-32%. Pitch above 50° or below 15° loses a further 3-7%.

## Should I model electricity price inflation?

We don't, by default. Conservative payback at today's prices is the cleanest number to compare quotes against. If you want to see the picture with inflation, we'll run scenarios at 0%, 3% and 5% — but we won't use those scenarios to justify a different quote.

## Sanity checks on any quote

Annual generation should be roughly 950-1,100 × system size in kWp. Annual saving should be roughly £150-£200 per kWp on solar-only, £220-£320 per kWp with a well-sized battery. Payback should fall in 7-12 years. Anything noticeably outside those ranges is worth questioning before signing.

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Take the next step

## Services covered in this guide

[

Solar Panel Installation

MCS-certified solar PV installs across the South East.





](/services/solar-panel-installation)[

Solar Finance

0% APR options on qualifying installs.





](/services/solar-finance)[

Solar Battery Storage

Tesla, GivEnergy, Fox ESS and more — fully fitted, fully certified.





](/services/solar-battery-storage)[

Solar Panel Maintenance

Annual health checks that protect your investment.





](/services/solar-panel-maintenance)

Find a local installer

## Areas we cover in the South East

[

Solar installers in Kent

Maidstone · Canterbury · Ashford





](/solar-installers-kent)[

Solar installers in Surrey

Guildford · Woking · Cobham





](/solar-installers-surrey)[

Solar installers in Hampshire

Southampton · Portsmouth · Winchester





](/solar-installers-hampshire)[

Solar installers in West Sussex

Worthing · Crawley · Horsham





](/solar-installers-west-sussex)[

Solar installers in East Sussex

Brighton · Hove · Eastbourne





](/solar-installers-east-sussex)[

Solar installers in Berkshire

Reading · Bracknell · Slough





](/solar-installers-berkshire)

Explore the topic

## Keep exploring — calculators, services and local installers

Descriptive links across our calculators, guides, services and local installer areas — pick the next step that fits where you are.

Calculate

Run the numbers

-   [Solar savings & payback calculator Model annual bill savings and payback years ](/calculators)
-   [What size solar system do I need? Right-size your array to your usage ](/calculators)
-   [Battery storage ROI calculator See the extra savings a battery unlocks ](/calculators)
-   [EV home charging cost calculator Compare charging on solar vs the grid ](/calculators)

Services covered

Get this fitted

-   [Solar Panel Installation MCS-certified solar PV installs across the South East. ](/services/solar-panel-installation)
-   [Solar Finance 0% APR options on qualifying installs. ](/services/solar-finance)
-   [Solar Battery Storage Tesla, GivEnergy, Fox ESS and more — fully fitted, fully certified. ](/services/solar-battery-storage)
-   [Solar Panel Maintenance Annual health checks that protect your investment. ](/services/solar-panel-maintenance)

Keep reading

More UK solar guides

-   [Are Solar Panels Worth It in the UK in 2026? An honest, numbers-led look at solar economics, payback periods and RO ](/guides/are-solar-panels-worth-it-uk)
-   [Solar Panel Costs UK 2026: Real Prices, No Sales Spin What you should actually expect to pay for a residential solar system ](/guides/solar-panel-costs-uk)
-   [Solar Battery Costs UK 2026: Brands, Capacities, Payback What batteries cost in 2026, which brands lead, and how to size storag ](/guides/solar-battery-costs-uk)
-   [Solar Payback Period UK: 7-10 Years on Most Homes How to model solar payback honestly — and what drives it up or down. ](/guides/solar-payback-period-uk)

Find installers

Local installers we vet

-   [Solar installers in Kent Maidstone · Canterbury · Ashford ](/solar-installers-kent)
-   [Solar installers in Surrey Guildford · Woking · Cobham ](/solar-installers-surrey)
-   [Solar installers in Hampshire Southampton · Portsmouth · Winchester ](/solar-installers-hampshire)
-   [Solar installers in West Sussex Worthing · Crawley · Horsham ](/solar-installers-west-sussex)

### More guides

[

Are Solar Panels Worth It in the UK in 2026?

Read

](/guides/are-solar-panels-worth-it-uk)[

Solar Panel Costs UK 2026: Real Prices, No Sales Spin

Read

](/guides/solar-panel-costs-uk)[

Solar Battery Costs UK 2026: Brands, Capacities, Payback

Read

](/guides/solar-battery-costs-uk)

[All guides](/guides)

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Popular guides

-   [Are Solar Panels Worth It in the UK in 2026?](/guides/are-solar-panels-worth-it-uk)
-   [Solar Panel Costs UK 2026: Real Prices, No Sales Spin](/guides/solar-panel-costs-uk)
-   [Solar Battery Costs UK 2026: Brands, Capacities, Payback](/guides/solar-battery-costs-uk)
-   [Solar Payback Period UK: 7-10 Years on Most Homes](/guides/solar-payback-period-uk)
-   [Best Solar Batteries UK 2026: Honest Brand Comparison](/guides/best-solar-batteries-uk-2026)
-   [Solar Grants UK 2026: ECO4, 0% VAT, Smart Export Guarantee](/guides/solar-grants-uk-2026)
-   [All guides →](/guides)

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